The Last Indian Election
The Last Indian Election
Really? Will this be the last Indian election? “That can’t be true.” This is our most common refrain. However, there is a pinch of truth in it. Like most half-truths and victim cards flashed by Indian opposition parties, this is a well thought out jumla thrown at its supporters and fence-sitting voters.
The Truth: Changes and Challenges
If (and most widely expected), the BJP led NDA wins on 4th June 2024, Indian politics will change forever. The opposition realizes this and has been shouting hoarsely repeating: Democracy in danger, Modi is a dictator, BJP is a fascist party and so on and so forth. But what will really change and what challenges will it pose for the opposition?
Delimitation is due to happen between 2024 and 2028. Read more about this: What’s Puzzling Indians — Part 3? | by The Universal Post | Medium. Delimitation, along with NRC (National Register of Citizens), NPR (National Population Register, Indian Census) and CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) implementation will create massive changes in the country. Firstly, delimitation will increase the number of Lok Sabha seats from 543 to 800+. This will change the borders of many parliamentary seats which are dominated by Indians who have different ideological positions, and that position could be economic (free loaders), social (casteists, reservation seekers), religious (non-Hindus, pathological hatemongers, communists). Currently all political parties have built their political capital and vote banks based on this mathematics of seats represented by these complicated and sometimes well sown demographics. Once this changes, the opposition parties know that it will be an uphill task for them to match BJP’s capacity to adapt to the new changes. This will also result in loss of political power for the ideologies that have shaped India’s political system since independence. Thus, you will note that most opposition parties are crying hoarse and almost coaxing their supporters to come out and vote, so that there will be at least the semblance of an opposition. For them this is a battle of survival as for many parties and leaders, this may be the last time they may survive an election (both figuratively and practically).
Hard action against corruption is widely expected. So, anyone who has a legal case against them should be counting their days or preparing for a good defense in courts of law. With stricter actions by ED and CBI combined with the legislative (PMLA, Foreign funding, shell companies structuring) and technological changes (Demonetisation, Digitisation) it has already become difficult for opposition parties to make money, transport and store it. This in the past has been critical for political parties to run extravagant campaigns. With money in low supply and delimitation breaking their backs, this election could very well be the last election for many parties. With time and regular electoral setbacks, it might be difficult for the Indian opposition to survive the “new India” being created by the BJP.
Thirdly, combined with delimitation and action against corruption, if the BJP brings in significant legislative changes like UCC (Uniform Civil Code), removes or dilutes anti-majoritarian laws, makes fundamental changes to constitution, one nation-one election then it might be difficult for Indian opposition parties to play catch-up. In addition, just like Bollywood and Cricket in India, if meritocracy starts eating into nepotism in Indian politics, it will become almost impossible for all opposition parties barring the communists; the communists only supported by God’s own Keralites. So, this might be their last hurrah.
Finally
Irrespective of what happens on 4th June, it is important for everyone to note that elections will continue to happen but how they are done, when they are done and who will be involved in it will be decided by Indian voters. In Modi 3.0, the BJP led NDA will continue to replace mandal with kamandal politics as the latter will chip away at the anti-Hindu mindset of secularly twisted Indians. However, the challenge will still be from within, i.e. Hindus who fervently practice division and subtraction very easily forgetting addition and multiplication. You know what I mean.
