What’s Puzzling Indians — Part 3?
[Read this in conjunction with What’s Puzzling Indians — Part 1 & Part 2? https://aruneshchoubey.medium.com/whats-puzzling-indians-part-1-b79f61f91645
https://aruneshchoubey.medium.com/whats-puzzling-indians-part-2-2585399abf3d
Continuing on from the last two articles in this series, let’s look at some other socio-political puzzles.
NPR, NRC, CAA & Central Vista — the lesser known connection
To an average Indian, the Congress led opposition’s hostility towards NPR, NRC and CAA is understandable but not the Central Vista project. The NPR (National Population Register) is a counting process which will result in a list of all people (citizens and non-citizens) residing in India. It is the Indian census exercise conducted every 10 years. The NPR can then be used to prepare the NRC (National Register of Citizens) which will result in a count of people who are the actual citizens of India. The CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) is a law which assists persecuted non-Muslims (from Muslim states: Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan) to get fast track Indian citizenship. Most people understand why the Congress led opposition which feeds off Muslim vote banks is objecting to the conduct of NPR, NRC and CAA.
It will actually be the first time in Independent India that a fully independent non-Congress government will be conducting the census. The BJP completed the NRC process for Assam but the results were unsatisfactory from its point of view and to its horror it was confirmed that Assam was a “Yes Country for Jugaad Men”. Thus, illegal immigrants had all the papers to prove their citizenship while the real ones were left out. Knowing that this would jeopardise its aim of implementing a pan- India NRC, they brought CAA. The opposition rightly or wrongly believes that the BJP/NDA will twist the census, citizenship register and CAA to create a voter base favourable to itself. So far so good! But what’s the fuss about Central Vista? Why is the opposition raising such a hue and cry against the Central Vista redevelopment project? After all, the Central Vista is an infrastructure development project aiming to redevelop India’s central administrative area including construction of a new parliament.
To summarize, what’s the problem with counting the number of your own citizens and finding who lives in India? Can’t that data be better used for planning and development of India? And after all, if this happens every 10 years, so why the outcry? And, moreover, why stand against the construction of a new parliament. After all, it generates investment, employment and long term benefits. Why file court cases and generate seditious content against such a project. Strange, isn’t it? Unknown to most people, there is a deep connection between NPR, NRC, CAA and ‘lo and behold’ the central vista redevelopment.
As mentioned earlier, albeit fleetingly, it is assumed that the BJP/NDA will use NPR, NRC and CAA to identify illegal aliens (mostly Muslims) and either disenfranchise them or/and export them back to their own countries. Congress and some other political parties being the “Messiah of Muslims” are standing firmly against the government. Right? No. Wrong, Very Wrong! Congress and other family run parties who depend on exploitation of Muslims by use of their one sided vote are not thinking about Muslims and their condition in India. They are thinking of their own future. How?
The NPR will result in a number which will tell India the actual population of the country, while the NRC will say how many of those are Indian citizens. The CAA will be used to boost the non-Muslim population and proper implementation of the Liaquat–Nehru Pact (at least by the Indian side). The BJP understands that implementation of all this is a complicated process and thus, it has “saved the best for last”. And, what is that last?
Delimitation- The missing link.
That last is the delimitation exercise which is slated to happen in 2026 or before it based on the 2021 census (NPR). The current Indian parliamentary system is based on the 1971 census. That is why we have 543 Lok Sabha (Lower House) seats and 245 Rajya Sabha (Upper House) seats. The next delimitation exercise which was to be held in 2001 was pushed to 2026 (Note: A delimitation exercise was conducted 2002–08 but the number of seats in the parliament and assemblies were let unchanged). Armed with NPR, NRC and CAA; BJP/NDA/Modi can conduct the delimitation exercise, which by the way is already occurring in the UT of Jammu and Kashmir and 4 other North Eastern states. The 2026 delimitation will most probably result in a massive increase in parliamentary seats in the north and a decrease in the south. Depending on how the slicing and dicing is done, many Muslim majority seats may lose the one sided voting power that we often see in several states. It will also impact the overall strength of many state assemblies.
Scared of the outcome of such an exercise, all political parties are opposing the NPR, NRC and CAA. Now once the number of seats will increase massively, all political parties apart from the BJP may be in strife. This includes all family run parties like that of the Yadavs (Mulayam aka Soft and Lalu aka Fool), Pawars, Thackerays, Gandhis, Raos, Badals, Owaisi, Gupkars, Naidus, Karunanidhis and even the BSP, TMC and AAP which are run through a party supremo. The CPM in Kerala may be the lone ideological opposition party which could be a stand out. The delimitation thus, could be the death knell of most family run fiefdoms and Modi has a golden opportunity just like Indira Gandhi, who did away with the privy purses of former kings and princes in 1971.
Delimitation and Central Vista
The central vista project scares these parties more, as once the BJP-NDA is armed with new numbers, it will have a parliament which can seat the increased number of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha members. By some estimates, the Lok Sabha numbers will be more than 800 with massive increases in U.P, Rajasthan and West Bengal among others. Thus, the central vista project is an anathema for every one of these political parties. The BJP though said to be struggling during these viral times is slowly but surely ratcheting up the pressure from a legal, statistical and infrastructure perspective. The removal of article 370 and 35A and the ongoing delimitation in J & K and the moves in Lakshadweep are part of the BJP’s electoral and ideological strategies to ensure that the legal and administrative structure becomes such that parties depending on sowing Muslim, Dalit or any sort of other combinations will find fresh challenges and will be forced to look at other avenues which they may or may not be good at pursuing, thereby resulting in weakening of such parties.
And Finally…The Conversion Factor
The other scary thing for many parties is that if NPR, NRC and CAA is implemented in such a way that eventually it disenfranchises many Muslims, mostly poor. Will there be a chance that they may convert to Hinduism or may at least recognize themselves as Hindus. This may be a problem for those who invest in conversion activities. Further, this may challenge the Hindu hard right who will need to pull the rug from under the feet of the neo converts to ensure they are honest in their approach to Hinduism. This may include changes to places of prayer, celebration of festivals and wearing of clothes that identifies with Islam.
The success of the NPR, NRC, CAA, 2026 delimitation exercise may also have a deep impact on the Hindu society itself. If political parties will have lesser scope of using their caste and sub castes to ask for votes, they may be forced to ask for votes based on local issues or other factors like development. This, then may move things away from harmful aspects of identity politics which gave rise to fragmentation of the Hindu and Indian society in general and also the poison of reservations.
The challenge for the BJP/NDA will be to succeed against all odds. They will need to remember what Alfred North Whitehead had said, “The art of progress is to preserve order amid change and to preserve change amid order”. Times can throw curve balls like COVID but the government has to keep going and Indian voters need to see the Big Picture.
