Why did NDA win?
Now that the Indian elections are well and truly done and dusted with a new government in place, I am perhaps one of the last to explore the reasons behind the unexpected election results. While I thought about this article, I had other headlines in mind: Why did Modi lose? Why did BJP lose? Why I.N.D.I.A won? However, none of these were entirely true. The fact was a pre-election alliance which had worked in some form or the other over the last 25 years was voted to power. So, NDA (National Democratic Alliance) had posted a substantial win in the elections. It was actually a rap on the knuckles for BJP and a reality check for Modi.
The Probable reasons for NDA’s victory
The headline sorted, I set out to analyze the reasons behind the NDA’s victory. Various political pundits pointed out how the BJP and the PM himself were overconfident leading to laziness among the ranks of the party workers and also the voters. Some pointed at poor quality candidates while others blamed local factors. Some others blamed the PM’s vision of “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas”. Many others summarily blamed Muslim tactical voting. Some pointed out how the BJP had lost the narrative war. Others pointed at a foreign hand, while many others pointed at how the BJP had failed to explain why it wanted 400+ seats in the Lok Sabha. Popular acceptance was also given to the theory that the opposition had convinced a chunk of BJP voters that the party wanted to amend the constitution and cancel reservations. Tens of other reasons were floated, and it finally seems there were a mixture of immediate reasons for the NDA’s victory.
However, what really happened?
1. No Emotion Election: In 2014, Indians were emotionally charged up against a corrupt, dynast and minorities appeasing government. Modi was the perfect alternative and passed the majority mark. Balakot and Uri strikes along with Modi’s popularity worked wonders for BJP in 2019. In 2024, the overwhelming emotion was that BJP will win in a landslide. Thus, a negative emotion of laziness reflected in the results. The winners lost and the losers won. Thus, Modi Ki Guarantee just wasn’t enough. It had low emotional connect. Modi was not Bharat and Bharat wasn’t Modi, just as Indira was not India and India wasn’t Indira.
2. Hindu Fault Lines: Once again, the opposition could successfully exploit the Hindu fault lines, specifically in the Northern belt of India. Ram temple wasn’t enough for many Hindus and in fact, they thought: what have we got to do with the temple of a Kshatriya king. The science of 3,000 Hindus castes and 25,000 sub castes created such a sudden downpour that Modi was caught unprepared without an umbrella. The BJP’s art of managing the caste fault lines was left wanting.
3. Clever Voters: Or should I say, greedy voters. Even though the BJP had delivered on many fronts, for many voters, it was “yeh dil maange more”. The promises of the opposition and the fearmongering propagated by them was enough to cut the BJP to size. Voters showed their mistrust in the BJP by trusting the opposition’s narrative. Clearly, they fell in the trap, not realizing that “one in the hand is worth two in the bush”.
4. Limitations of the Hindu vote: Once again, the Hindus proved that there is nothing called the Hindu voter and for many Hindu voters, their Hindu identity was way below their other needs: economic and social mainly. Unlike Muslims who could be sold the idea of long-term losses if the BJP continued to be in power, the opposite isn’t true for the Hindus. Many Hindus live in the present and still strongly believe that creation of the “Islamic Republic of India” is just a myth and thus, while voting they have personal, local and economic factors in mind.
Can the BJP recover?
Short answer is Yes. However, unless the BJP is nimbler in rollout of its policies and catering to its own vote bank, it will find such situations arise frequently. To avoid such situations, the BJP needs to work deeper with a wide array of citizens and organizations. It needs a better incentive structure for Indians to lose their multi-layered religious, caste, sub caste and class identities. Also, the society needs to work in tandem. There are hundreds of Hindu centric organizations (sects, muths, ashrams, centers) which do little to blur the Hindu fault lines and attract people who have been weaned away from Hinduism. There needs to be a mass movement. In absence of such a movement, BJP and parties like it, will need to work slowly as they try and avoid landmines laid through centuries of repressions, divisions and occupations of a land which was once the undisputed leader of the world on many fronts.
We must remember that until politics and society keep outsourcing their responsibilities to each other, Bharat will be just a pipe dream.
