The REAL reasons behind India’s COVID “Quake”.
As India grapples with a mega quake of covid cases; Columnists, Authors, Journalists, Newsmen, Scientists and almost everyone with an opinion (including me) are trying to answer the question, where did the covid quake come from? Some biased journalists are having a “told ya” moment. They can’t hide their glee and point fingers at large rallies of the Indian PM, Narendra “the doer” Modi and the Kumbh Mela as the main reason for spread of the virus. Social Media is swamped with cartoons and videos ridiculing not just the national government but also India and Indians in general. Many with a pathological hate of India and everything Indian are relishing their 15 minutes of fame. There is talk of how arrogant the PM is and how he lost it. There is a rush to throw the baby with the bathwater. Everything else is not talked about. Very few talk about why the so called “Indian variant/mutant” has spread faster, affects more people and sends many more to hospitals and requires oxygen support and other rare medications.
So, how did it spread?
The cases had been see-sawing internationally since the discovery of the so called “UK variant” (Dec 20), “South African Variant” (Dec 20) and “Brazilian Variant” (Jan 2021). Until then, no one had heard of the powerful “Indian variant”. But what did the Indian Government do when the discovery of such variants and their impacts were known? Planes still flew into the country and there is a great possibility that quarantine procedures were flouted as they always are. With low level corruption rampant in India, anyone with a purchased negative COVID test could fly in and spread the virus. A single passenger can spread it to all his co-passengers, staff at the airport, the taxi driver and his family and last but not the least, his entire family. Thus, it is the nonchalant operation of the quarantine system that possibly allowed mutation of an “Indian variant”. Thus, you see capital cities and states with greater air traffic leading in COVID infections. Maharashtra, Delhi, Kerala and Punjab fall into this category. Once the virus started flowing again, the state elections, festivals and pretty much any activity like a vegetable market could act as a super spreader event. Mind it, some Indian markets have more foot fall than some busy international airports. Complacency was another culprit. Indians are not known for restraint and self-discipline unless they are in a foreign country. Masks and social distancing rules were flouted and you couldn’t expect anything better. Thus, to say elections or festivals were the main culprit is a bit tacky. The US had presidential elections even when Trump, the incumbent President was covid positive. And if elections were the real reason, why don’t opposition parties in India agree to the one nation, one election call of the PM?
So, who’s to blame?
This is a popular discussion in chat rooms and news channels. It will be a bit cheesy to say that the Indian central Government is not at fault. However, no one can take away the fact that no government could predict the scale, speed and complexity of the quake. So, how could any Indian central or state government do the same? Could they have planned better? Of course! However, again this is not India’s national strength. We don’t have a risk based approach to anything banal like health, education and other human indicators. If planning would have been India’s strength, Indians wouldn’t have been ruled by foreign powers for 800 years and still be comfortable about it.
The other expectation is for politicians to stop haggling and finger pointing. That will not happen as a politician who accepts responsibility for any wrongdoing cannot be a politician. It is a professional hazard. So why would any Indian politician take responsibility for something as bizarre as the spread of a virus. Did Bush, Blair and Howard accept that they were wrong about WMD’s in Iraq? Did Xi Xinping take responsibility for the spread of virus? No! So, why would any politician in India take responsibility? Politicians can’t do that and let’s stop asking them for the same.
So, what to do?
International Media has been critical of Modi’s handling of the pandemic. There is a lot of hope that experiences from the pandemic would cause Modi to falter and hopefully he would lose power in 2024 and if possible earlier through an Indian “Arab Spring”. But as Tyrion “the Imp” Lannister says in Game of Thrones, “You can remove one system but replace it with what?” So if not Modi, then who? Where is the proof or even a faint whiff that anybody in India can fill his large shoes? Does India have the nerve to go back to a Congress party which is largely responsible for bungling the development of India or does a coalition of 30 odd bickering and looting family run parties (including Congress) look better? The only one who comes close is Naveen Patnaik, the Odisha Chief Minister. But his party has neither the scale nor does he himself seem to have any interest to be PM. Some others who are interested have little calibre and appeal outside their boroughs. So, whatever the media says, whatever the Whats App messages and hundreds of propaganda videos say, the best bet for India and Indians will be Modi and his party.
What can Indians do?
When was the last time you saw a large scale protest in India for better health services or better education or better roads or better trains or better anything? India, a “protesting nation” where protests are a social and political pastime, sees protests on things like reservations, rapes, farm subsidies, corruption and misplaced ideas on political and religious persecution. All these protests have bought mixed results and most of the benefits are taken up by political parties. We don’t protest and ask for basic things. It is in our DNA. Natural law says that you don’t get what you don’t ask for. So, if you don’t ask for a better health system or better government schools, you don’t get that. You will get a temple or two but not a big hospital.
Finally…
This is a time to be patient and a time to stop bickering. It is a time to help each other. As while we all fight and point fingers at each other, the real culprit with a smirk on his face, gently asks, “Can we help? Some Sinovac? What say?”
