The Real DANGERS of Statistics in COVIDISTAN.
At the time of writing this, India had 24 million COVID Cases, with 262K deaths, 20 million recoveries and 3.7 million active cases. BIG NUMBERS they are. However, when we compare it with the population of India, 1.38 Billion and analyse percentage wise, less than 2% of the population is impacted (ok, let’s say 3% for those who mistrust the official numbers). Out of the impacted, 83% have recovered, 16% are active and 1% dead. By percentages, the COVID story is a blip on the radar of life in India. But, is that the reality?
Let’s look at another number, this time first by percentage and then by numbers. India has vaccinated just 12% of its population, while our good friend, Israel has vaccinated 62% of its population. By numbers, India has vaccinated 179 million people, while Israel has vaccinated 5.5 million. So, by numbers, we are doing a fantastic job and Israel needs to buck up.
Another stat says, 51 babies are born in India every minute. Thus, the replacement rate is pretty good. No COVID can match the havoc caused by this brilliant birth rate. However, is that good enough? Should we all make merry and forget that people are dying due to this Chinese Bio Weapon. After all, for those who suffer, these stats mean nothing. Nothing and simply nothing!
But, as the Vedas say, beyond nothing is the truth. And what is it?
The truth?
Firstly, there is nothing called truth nowadays and frankly there never was one. It’s a creation of the righteous. So, truth is all about perspective. In all democracies, as the question of leadership is not resolved clearly enough, there is a maddening rush (ambition) to influence. Everyone wants to influence the other. There is more knowledge and creators of knowledge than takers of the same. And, there are more ways to create and share these pieces of knowledge (stories). So, what we are left with is stories and perspectives, sometimes more than we can take.
Truth is twisted and made to dance and auctioned off to the highest bidder. Thus, if the narrative revolves around just one aspect and that is the one you are led to believe in, you can say goodbye to truth. So, we have to settle with what Dumbledore says in Harry “Baba” Potter, “The truth. It is a beautiful and terrible thing, and should therefore be treated with great caution.” And therein lies the problem, the news cycle around us doesn’t know caution. They sell a form of truth, which is more harmful to the health of an individual and the nation as a whole, than the actual disease.
What are the issues?
In one case when we look at pure numbers, things look gloomy and in the other case when we look at percentages, things look rosy. Both set of numbers paint a picture. But then, often we are shown the gloomy side and not the rosy one. It will be wrong to say that only rosy pictures should be painted as doom and gloom should also be shared, specifically when we are talking about positive attempts by media to influence government policy.
The issue becomes how much doom and gloom should be shared and how often? What is the balanced view in media reporting? When you watch TV nowadays, it seems everyone needs an oxygen tank, hospital bed, Remo D’Souza (yeah, that’s what Remdesivir is being called), steroids and so on and so forth. We are constantly shown the more dangerous side or should I say the more unsettling side. Statistics were meant to analyse situations and influence decision making. But, now it is being used to constantly keep people in a state of turmoil and unhappiness. Whoever is doing so, should know that Indians can’t be unhappier than they were at any point in time as out of 149 countries on the happiness index, we are at 139. By the way, the happiness index is a silly set of stats which compares apples, jackfruits, lemons, gooseberries and other fruits and nuts using the same set of parameters.
What to do?
Scientists and policy makers must look at stats which present challenges and opportunities, politicians will look at whatever benefits them, journalists look at what produces higher TRPs, but WE THE PEOPLE need to shift through information which is helpful and grants solace. Glass is half full, not half empty! A lot of rubbish and half-truths get reported. News is sold off as entertainment and sometimes as a tool to subjugate your senses. Be careful of these peddlers of news who distort facts and twist narratives. Know the truth but don’t be consumed by it. After all, nowadays, truth too is contaminated.
Other stats…
India has 1 doctor and half a hospital bed for every thousand. And you know who’s to blame. Maharashtra CM, Uddhav “Gandhi” thinks it is the Nehru- Gandhi family. It is a different matter that unaware of the facts, he had used the current situation to laud the first family of Indian politics for their contribution to the health infrastructure in the country (Picture: Imagine Modi’s smile while tugging his beard).
Continuing with stats, everything in India has been built using taxes payed by just 2% of the Indian population. Where are the others? Answer is, most Indians don’t trust the government and so pay next to no tax. To tide over low tax collections, the government gets clever. It taxes people through GST, fuel tax and a variety of other ways. And then people say, prices are so high. The losers are those who pay income tax and a raft of other taxes. But who cares. You can live in India, earn your bread, and pay no tax (sh…sh… doesn’t apply to areas ruled by local goons), take subsidies and when the time comes do rail “roko”, bus burning, street blocking and then turn around and complain, “where’s my vaccine? I wanted it last year.”
And for those who say, “Kagaz nahi Dikhayenge (We won’t show the papers)”, to have the right ratio of doctors, nurses, hospital beds, policemen and teachers and so on and so forth, we need numbers and stats to plan and work out demand and supply. And that makes, NPR (National Population Register) and NRC (National Register of Citizens) a need of the hour. Anyone who thinks otherwise, should know that, even the Taj Mahal wasn’t built in a day.
Finally…
While we are aghast seeing the burning pyres and floating bodies, quibbling over how many bodies were actually floating in the Ganges, how many pyres were burning and how many were actually COVID ones; someone across the Everest, settles down in his “Ghenghisian” couch, takes ones of those burning logs (from the burning pyres) and lights up his cigar (or rocket), pours a glass of Dom Perignon and raises a toast shouting, Gānbēi (Cheers).
